Three points for a win with Finland is very little to advance from the group
Russian national team won against Finland – 1: 0 and returned to the fight for the playoffs Euro 2020… But the victory was very modest. The difference in one ball is too small to try to go further. We need to get points in the match with the Danish national team in Copenhagen. “KP Sport” analyzes all the tournament layouts in group B.
Who makes the playoffs?
16 teams out of 24 that take part in Euro 2020 will advance to the playoffs:
- 12 teams that took first-second places in their groups.
- 4 teams, out of six of those who will take third place in their groups.
The third place in the group is not a verdict yet. The Portuguese national team at Euro 2016 reached the playoffs in just this way. And she ended the tournament as a winner.
Can Russia take first or second place in the group?
Yes. To do this, she needs:
- Or win against Denmark in Copenhagen. Then, with 6 points, Cherchesov’s team is guaranteed to make it to the playoffs.
- Or draw in Copenhagen. But 4 points is not a guarantee. You can stay third with them if Belgium relaxes and starts giving away points to Denmark and Finland.
Is three points not enough to advance to the playoffs?
Theoretically, the second place in our group B can be taken with 3 points. If Belgium beats Denmark (in the 2nd round) and Finland (in the 3rd), and we, in our turn, are inferior to the Danes in Copenhagen, then an interesting situation may arise: Belgium – 9 points, Denmark, Russia and Finland – each 3. But in this case, Russia has very low chances of taking second place in terms of the difference between goals scored and conceded.
A major defeat against Belgium plays not the first role here. In such a “triple twist”, goals scored or conceded in games between themselves are first considered. In case of a defeat in Denmark, even with a minimum score, there will be either a zero difference or a minus one (if we lose with a difference of two or more goals). In the second case, the Finns and Danes will be taller than us (that’s why we needed to score the second goal for the Finns). In the first case, you will have to count the goals from the Belgians.
So let’s see how Denmark and Finland play against Belgium.
What do you need to get out of 3rd place?
- Draw with Denmark and score 4 points. As the experience of Euro 2016, where the same scheme was used, four points is quite enough to reach the playoffs from the 3rd place in the group.
There are apparently no other options. If we lose to Denmark, we will remain with three points and overtake Finland with them, with all the other teams that took 3rd places we will argue on the following parameters:
- The total difference between goals scored and conceded
- Number of goals scored
- Number of wins
- Number of yellow and red cards
- Place in the UEFA rankings
We cut ourselves off at the second point. With such a negative difference, it is almost impossible to go anywhere.
That is why we need at least a draw in Denmark. She practically guarantees us the playoffs in any hands.